Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 3.342579 4.007595 4.749732 5.636294 6.663365 7.812475 9.191990
2025-04-13 2.217513 3.053636 4.099283 5.488911 7.271253 9.463150 12.342867
2025-04-20 1.734305 2.684517 3.990505 5.881681 8.508476 11.980380 16.858660
2025-04-27 1.351054 2.323878 3.777748 6.045486 9.414896 14.142362 21.157682
2025-05-04 1.100069 2.079906 3.656721 6.279525 10.405667 16.490172 25.933221
2025-05-11 0.871968 1.806792 3.421278 6.273365 11.002435 18.297581 30.082709
2025-05-18 0.668894 1.519554 3.095082 6.046033 11.191210 19.472654 33.360083
2025-05-25 0.506526 1.262137 2.761955 5.735583 11.175796 20.290513 36.117708
2025-06-01 0.408367 1.107685 2.585542 5.667849 11.549883 21.753344 40.009060
2025-06-08 0.330754 0.975507 2.423710 5.594313 11.890964 23.174267 43.929244
2025-06-15 0.297767 0.940674 2.457876 5.910881 12.987807 25.995792 50.443706
2025-06-22 0.251385 0.857282 2.367000 5.950771 13.548521 27.897054 55.485380
2025-06-29 0.208839 0.772830 2.260989 5.951737 14.053329 29.781284 60.726370
2025-07-06 0.172245 0.693291 2.150374 5.925860 14.503531 31.611901 66.035684
2025-07-13 0.162108 0.694073 2.245774 6.394777 16.054269 35.690951 75.827255
2025-07-20 0.142406 0.655754 2.228530 6.588934 17.027959 38.713019 83.828513
2025-07-27 0.127460 0.628817 2.237079 6.847750 18.172098 42.163862 92.886127
2025-08-03 0.107143 0.573028 2.149014 6.843469 18.712688 44.421616 99.758984
2025-08-10 0.084686 0.497554 1.981878 6.599049 18.658083 45.428667 104.205726
2025-08-17 0.064930 0.422609 1.795122 6.264242 18.338913 45.835482 107.450970
2025-08-24 0.053462 0.380249 1.705815 6.191205 18.656306 47.644843 113.700421
2025-08-31 0.043907 0.341866 1.619762 6.111830 18.945984 49.410968 119.968078
2025-09-07 0.041077 0.339654 1.667842 6.453628 20.372987 53.850627 132.192710